The world, natural rubber supply and demand forecast
The international rubber study group (IRSG) release, at the current planting conditions in southeast Asia, can grow rubber resources, think global rubber in 2020 will be in short supply situation. In the existing production capacity of 12.5 million tons, global consumption of natural rubber will reach 13.6 million tons, demand more than capacity greatly.
The recent market is also keen to discuss in the next few years ANRPC supply capacity, planting situation then look at the major producer in southeast Asia. From the point of total acreage, ANRPC in 2016 with a total area of 11.54 million hectares, has been growing. But the growth is decreasing year by year, from 4% in 2010 fell to 1.8% this year. Visible IRSG predicting rubber planting area resource is exhausted or according to the can depend on.
Market focus on the supply of incremental will fall on the newly planted area, from the perspective of the new acreage of ANRPC, to start planting area with a sharp downturn in 2012, from the new fall 480000 hectares in 2016 to 94000 hectares. Low adhesive price does hit the ANRPC rubber planting enthusiasm. Data from 2012, we can clearly see new acreage decrease in Thailand, Vietnam aspects do have surged, and Vietnam in the 2008-2012 new planting area are higher than other countries. With rubber planting period of 6 to 7 years, Vietnam beyond Malaysia in 2013 became the third largest producer of rubber is also a reason for that. Overall, 2013-2016 is a new area significantly decline in a few years, corresponding to the 2019-2023 years should be ANRPC supply growth.
Rubber trees flourishing maternity leave can be up to 10 years, at the current Thailand rubber tree age distribution, and 2020 years ago still accounts for most of the high tree. So Thailand capacity influence more whether the area is a disaster, but the future of rubber production increment more attention in Vietnam. Days glue gap between supply and demand more in the demand greater than supply growth.
From the point of the open cut area of ANRPC, 2016 of the total area of 8.66 million hectares, open cut and ANRPC open cut rates in recent years are stable at around 75%. This year with Indonesia tapping covers an area of 3.03 million hectares, tapping at a rate of 83%, while in Thailand open cut area of 2.83 million hectares, open cut at a rate of 91%. General view, the trend of ANRPC open cut area similar to total planting area, total is on the rise but growth is still in decline, decreased from 4.6% in 2010 to 1.6% this year.